The seasonally-adjusted Live Register fell 2,500 in the month to 398,300 in February, its lowest total since May 2009. Furthermore, it was the twentieth monthly decrease in a row and was the first time the adjusted total was below the 400,000 level since May five years ago. While emigration has been a contributory factor in bringing down the numbers on the Live Register over the past year and a half, there is clear evidence that there is more to it than just that, with employment conditions in the majority of sectors in the economy generally improving in the past few months. <p>
With the big drop in the numbers signing on, the unemployment rate fell to 11.9% last month from 12.0% in January and 12.1% in both December and November. Having hit a crisis high of 15.1% in February 2012, it has since then started to decline steadily, a sign that the labour market is on the road to recovery, though the jobless rate still remains a lot higher than desirable. However, if things continue to improve at the same speed, the unemployment rate could be below 11.0% come year-end. <p>
<b>The unemployment rate remains the key indicator as far as the economy is concerned and steady progress is being made in terms of bringing it down. Although the recovery path for the labour market won’t entirely be smooth, we do think that the level of unemployment will continue to fall over the course of 2014. It does now appear as though the jobless rate has peaked, and we are looking for it to fall back to 11.5% on average this year from 13.1% in 2013, which itself was the lowest level since 2009.
<p><h5>Alan McQuaid</h5>
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