This morning the economic focus turns to the official Irish retail sales data for January. Headline sales were up 0.6% in the month in volume terms in December and were 3.0% higher in the year, following an annual increase of 2.0% in November. Excluding motor trades, sales were up 1.4% in the month and were 3.0% higher in the year.
The second half of 2013 was a lot stronger than the first half of the year. For 2013 as a whole, headline retail sales were up 0.7% on average in volume terms, while the increase was 0.8% when motor trades are excluded.
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A key issue going forward will be the state of the labour market, and the signs are encouraging on this front as we’ve seen with the most recent official employment data and the Live Register over the last year or so. Having peaked in February 2012, the jobless rate has fallen steadily since. A continuation of this trend in 2014 will be reflected in stronger retail sales in our view.
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<b><i>For January, we are looking for headline sales to be up 3.0% in the month mainly due to strong car sales, but to be down 0.5% excluding cars.
<p><h5>Alan McQuaid</h5>
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