The official November Live Register figures are due for release this morning. The seasonally-adjusted Live Register fell 3,700 in the month to 409,900 in October, its lowest total since June 2009. Furthermore, it was the sixteenth monthly decrease in a row. The Live Register has declined by 21,500 so far this year. <p>
However, as evidenced by the recent official migration estimates, increased emigration has been a factor in contributing to the drop over the past year, though in fairness, employment conditions generally have improved in the past few months. With the big drop in the numbers signing on, the unemployment rate now stands at 12.6% based on the latest Quarterly National Household Survey.<p>
Having peaked at 15.1% in February 2012, it has since then started to decline steadily, a sign that the labour market is on the road to recovery, though the jobless rate is still a lot higher than desirable. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator as far as the economy is concerned. <p>
<b>The way things are going the jobless rate should fall to 12.4% by year-end and average 13.2% for 2013 as a whole. Meanwhile, we are looking for a seasonally-adjusted Live Register decline of 1,900 to 408,000 in November, which would push the unemployment rate down to 12.5%.
<p><h5>Alan McQuaid</h5>
Disclaimer: www.merrion-capital.com/disclaimer
Merrion Stockbrokers Limited (registration no. 307878)
is a limited liability company whose registered office is at
Block C, The Sweepstakes Centre, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland.